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What is happening with the euro? It falls and takes the biggest 'hit' in the history of foreign exchange
Written by SOT.COM.AL 5 Qershor 2023
The exchange rate of the euro with the lek has started this week in rapid decline and has already reached the limit of 108 lek.
According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the European currency was exchanged today at 108.18 ALL, touching a new historical minimum. The euro exchange rate has fallen by 5.3% since the beginning of this year and by 10% compared to the same period last year.
Agents of the foreign exchange market explain the fall of the euro with an ever stronger effect of the tourist season. The expectations are that this year the arrivals of foreign tourists will mark new historical records and with them also the inflows of European currency.
According to experts, some kind of influence in this situation is probably also having a psychological effect. Based on historical data, the downward trend of the euro is expected to continue during the summer and the seasonal effect may reach its peak at the beginning of August. This expectation can push on the one hand to sell euros before the further devaluation of the European currency and on the other hand to wait to buy euros, when the exchange rate has fallen even more.
The euro exchange rate has not only reached the lowest historical point, but also the rates of its decline are the fastest ever recorded.
It seems that the next wave of strengthening of the lek against the euro is moving the exchange rate towards new levels, difficult to predict already. Last year, in the period between the beginning of June and the beginning of August, the euro suffered a 3.5% decrease in value in the exchange rate with the lek.
By simulating a drop of similar proportions for this year as well, the exchange rate of the euro by the end of August would reach the level of 104.5 ALL. However, the rate of decline of the euro since before the summer season has been much faster, while the seasonal effect may be even stronger, also due to the expectations created for tourism.
Forcimi i lekut në kursin e këmbimit do të ketë një efekt negative mbi sektorin turistik, duke sjellë rënie të fuqisë blerëse të valutës së turistëve të huaj dhe ndoshta do të tkurrë një pjesë të fitimeve të pritura nga rritja e numrit të vizitorëve. Një efekt i ngjashëm po ndihet gjithnjë e më shumë në sektorët eksportues të ekonomisë, sidomos në ato aktivitetet ku rritja e çmimeve mund të jetë e vështirë, pa humbur në konkurrueshmëri.
Ndërkohë, forcimi i lekut po sjell përfitime në rritje për atë segment të ekonomisë që ka të ardhura në monedhën vendase dhe shpenzime në euro. Këtu përfshihen importuesit, prodhuesit që punojnë me lëndë të para importi, huamarrësit në monedhën europiane, etj.
In theory, this situation should already translate into a reduction in the prices of imported consumer goods. But, on the other hand, this benefit can go to cover the increasing costs of the work force and maybe even to increase the profits of the business, especially in the markets with problems of the functioning of the competition.
The strengthening of the lek has an undoubtedly positive effect on increasing the paying power of borrowers in foreign currency and on maintaining the quality parameters of credit for the economy, at least in this segment of the portfolio. MONITOR