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Bota

Can we be at war? Fear that Russia and China will unite to destroy the US and 'advertise' the threat. Recent developments and what is happening are revealed

Can we be at war? Fear that Russia and China will unite to destroy the US and

There has been so much talk lately about China's endless potential to invade Taiwan, as well as the gathering of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, that many believe it simply takes a little more than a pretext to start a war. .

What lies behind this analysis is the age-old fear that Russia and China will unite to destroy the United States, say, through the launch of simultaneous attacks. This is not something inconceivable, but on the other hand it is not possible.

Let's start with China. An invasion of Taiwan would definitely be an amphibious operation, with a landing by the sea. One of the principles of warfare is the value of surprise. Surprise is especially important in an amphibious attack. In Normandy, for example, the US and Britain launched a massive disinformation campaign to convince the Germans that they would not land where they actually landed.

If the defense is focused exactly on the point of landing, the attack could result in a real carnage. Even if China had a superior force, the sum of the correct placement and preparation of the adversary could annihilate its soldiers.

Then there is the distance factor. There are about 160 kilometers of water between China and Taiwan. Undertaking a direct attack, the Chinese attack force will be at sea for about 5 hours. In addition to notifying the opposing side of the planned positions, this invading force would be subject to air and missile attacks, as well as more dangerous attacks from submarines.

The chances of the Chinese reaching the landing zones without suffering heavy losses are low. Even if US space reconnaissance systems were to be completely neutralized - and I doubt it could happen - submarines could provide accurate information to be targeted by US missiles scattered around the world.

But even if Chinese troops land successfully, and if Taiwanese troops are forced to relinquish their positions, supplies and reinforcements would pose a major problem for the Chinese. At this point, the landing point will be agreed upon, and the necessary routes for the supply of Chinese infantry will be mapped out.

Air supply and reinforcement would not be enough. So even if the initial landing managed to conquer the beach, the supply problem would hurt Chinese operations. Then there is a political problem.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would trigger warning signals among U.S. allies in the area, some of which, like Japan, could prove dangerous. Certainly, a stunning, low-cost victory over China could force them to reconsider their alliances.

But a protracted conflict or complete defeat would convince U.S. allies of Chinese intentions, and they would be prepared accordingly. In such a scenario, China must win quickly, if it intends to use the attack as a lever to intimidate the region. And this is the ultimate problem for China.

In any war you can lose. A victory would turn China into a veritable superpower, though not ideal. A loss would ruin that dream. In addition, the US may choose to oppose an invasion by simultaneous actions in territories vital to China, such as the Straits of Malacca, or in Chinese ports.

The Chinese could not control the US response, which could include means aimed at paralyzing China's maritime trade. The latter, coupled with hostile economic actions by Europe, would make it a very self-destructive victory.

Let us now come to Russia. As I pointed out earlier, Russia is in the process of trying to recreate the strategic depth it had for centuries, and which it lost when the Soviet Union collapsed. So far, Moscow has achieved a dominant position in Belarus, and managed to emerge from the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh with a sound political position. This means, respectively, that it has strengthened its position on the western road over the Northern European Plain, while the security of the entry point into the Caucasus has been improved by smooth political movements.

Of all the defenses that Russia lost in 1990-1991, none is more vital to Russia than Ukraine. The Russians have used soft maneuvers to change the alignment of the Ukrainian government. But they have consistently failed, also because Ukraine has a strong memory of the brutality of the Soviet era.

Moreover, Kiev has relied on the West. This support has been careful not to provoke Russia's fear of a possible attack. But now this could be a possible reality. The gathering of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border should be read in this sense.

Are the Russians preparing a military operation to retake Ukraine? The problem with such an operation is the size of Ukraine. Even without any resistance, which is unlikely, it would take weeks for Russia to completely occupy Ukraine.

And during those weeks he would have to assume that Western weapons and supplies would not arrive. An expanded campaign by Russia would reveal other Russian interests. Belarus' status can be challenged, as can Russia's position in the Caucasus.

Russia's move against the borders of a number of NATO members, from the Baltic states to Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, is likely to revive NATO. There is no doubt that Ukraine is critical of Russia, and a revived NATO may be a small price to pay.

But Russia faces the same problem as China: It could lose. Russia has a large army, but as with the Soviets once, only parts of it are effective. And as with the Soviets, Russia's ability to support a massive logistical armor remains unknown.

A rapid invasion of the area to the south may not put much pressure on Russian forces. But if the US and NATO rapidly arm Ukrainian forces with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, and support them with logistics, a quick victory could turn into a long battle.

This would be true if American planes, prepared for war against the armored forces, were thrown into battle. Turkey, seeing a golden opportunity, could test Russian forces in the Caucasus, while Poland could move towards Belarus.

None of this is certain, but Russian strategists need to take these opportunities seriously. Optimists rarely win wars, and Russia has learned not to be optimistic. It could be found blockading Ukraine, striking with advanced weapons and facing attacks from the wings.

So you can lose. Moreover, starting a war in Ukraine would mean sacrificing economic opportunities in Europe. Meanwhile there is the possibility of coordination between Russia and China. At first glance this is reasonable. But in practice it would have little effect. A war with China would be a naval war. A war with Russia would be a land war.

There would be no troop competition between regions, only for supplies, and only if both wars were on a large scale, which is doubtful. Being both at war with the US against them, they would not have the luxury of deploying forces, and neither Russia nor China could support each other.

Russia could not provide significant naval support, while China could not lead significant ground forces to that distance. Of course a Russia-China alliance to start a war together, would panic the US, but it has shown before that it is capable of using panic to mobilize the public.

So in my opinion, the chances of war, and let alone of a coordinated war, are slim. Neither China nor Russia are so desperate as to risk defeat or a long and bloody war. And each is acting as if it does not take the issue of war seriously. Instead, they are advertising the threat. Of course, all things are possible, but the war scenario seems very distant. / "Geopolitical Futures" - Bota.al/ By George Friedman