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The year 2022 closes with high inflation, BSH: Foreign market shocks affect, high prices erode the purchasing power of families, businesses should be careful
Written by Rigels Seliman 12 Gusht 2022
According to the Bank of Albania, high inflation has affected the entire economy and has reached the highest historical levels and will peak in the third quarter of this year, while at the end of 2022 the growth will stop. This is the conclusion of the Bank of Albania presented in the monetary policy report. "We expect the effects of international growth to stabilize in the second half of this year, and the gradual reduction to start in 2023 and beyond. We expect inflation to peak in the second half of 2022 and then stop and return to the 3% target in 2024," Erald Themeli, Director of the Monetary Policy Department, declared yesterday to the media. Meanwhile, this increase in prices, according to the Director of Monetary Policy at the Bank of Albania, Erald Themeli, will negatively affect the budget of families. "High inflation erodes the purchasing power of Albanian families. This is even more sensitive for middle and low income families, who use the budget more for food. But over time, the economy has continued to grow and we expect it to continue even further, this will help families cope with inflation", he said.
Inflation, businesses beware
While from the analyzes made by the Central Bank, businesses have expressed that inflation will reach 10.6%, while citizens expect that it will go up to 9.6%. "Our analyzes show that 75-80% of the increase in inflation in the last 6 months comes from the increase in the prices of food items and oil, which has further produced an effect on other items as well", he said. Further, the Director of the Monetary Policy department also explains the main reasons that brought about the increase of the basic interest rate for the third time a few days ago. "Three are the main conclusions of the report that motivated this decision-making. The first is the fact that inflationary pressures in the country are stronger than initial forecasts. Foreign inflation has been above expectations and demand for goods has been steady. Secondly, is that the country's economy has had positive progress, the sources of economic growth are consolidated. The third conclusion has to do with financial markets that are stable in the face of shocks, but there is an increase in interest rates in the medium and long term", underlined Themeli.
Risks to inflation rates
As Governor Gent Sejko stated a few days ago, the monetary policy report also states that the risks of higher inflation rates and lower economic growth rates have increased. "Inflation is expected to remain at high levels until the beginning of next year and to come down further, to stay at the 3% target in the first half of 2024. Inflation in the country will largely reflect the growth current prices in the world market. Furthermore, in the absence of new shocks, the stabilization of prices abroad is expected to ease the pressure on inflation in the country", the Monetary Policy report states.
Ndërkohë në raportin e Bankës së Shqipërisë jepen detaje edhe për shpenzimet buxhetore. Shpenzimet buxhetore të tremujorit të dytë qëndruan në nivel të njëjtë me atë të një viti më parë. Ecuria e investimeve, me rënie rreth 31% në terma vjetore, ishte përcaktuesi kryesor i frenimit të shpenzimeve. Nga ana tjetër, shpenzimet korrente kontribuuan pozitivisht me rreth 5.1 pikë përqindje në zgjerimin e totalit, si pasojë e shtimit të shpenzimeve të qeverisë për sigurime shoqërore e shëndetësore12. Po ashtu, qeveria akordoi një fond prej 2.5 miliardë lekësh në tremujorin e dytë, në formë huadhënieje për sektorin energjetik. Destinacioni i këtij fondi është mbështetja e bilancit financiar të OSHEE-së, i cili ka vuajtur rritjen e faturës së importit të energjisë përkundrejt çmimeve të pandryshuara të shitjes me pakicë, të aplikuar në tregun vendas për konsumatorët familjarë dhe bizneset e vogla. Ky zë kontribuoi me 1.6 pikë përqindje në totalin e shpenzimeve”, thuhet në raportin e Politikës Monetare të publikuar dje nga Banka e Shqipërisë.