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Opinion / Editorial

Challenges and Opportunities of the 2022 Budget

Challenges and Opportunities of the 2022 Budget

By Alqi Bllako

The 2022 budget is a good opportunity to discuss not only the revenue forecast and their prioritization in distribution but, at most, the economic development perspective, at least in the medium term. With attention to the medium term, this budget undoubtedly creates many opportunities. But what are some of the challenges, taking care of which would maximize the benefits of this budget? I believe they relate to three elements: fiscal good governance, policies to increase private investment, and increased efficiency in the budgeting of development projects, with more involvement of sectoral ministries.

First, in terms of fiscal management, for a technical parenthesis, it should be noted that from a quantitative point of view, this budget is a significant commitment, in relation to the total projected expenditures, at about 34.1% of gross domestic product, financed in fact not only from revenue growth but also from a deficit beyond normal, imposed by the post-earthquake and post-pandemic economic reality. The good news for the economy is that investment financing projected for 2022 represents a significant value both in absolute terms and in percentage relative to gross domestic product. This not only helps consolidate economic growth after the 2020 recession but also continues to fund infrastructure projects which are the undisputed vanguard of development. However,

Moreover, the pandemic is still in progress and despite vaccination no one can accurately predict the scenarios of its development as no one knows today to say exactly how much the current energy crisis will extend in time and space. The increase of salaries, pensions, economic assistance as well as the support for health and education are not only reflections of the 2022 budget but a political and social obligation that must be deepened and accelerated. At the same time, agriculture, manufacturing and infrastructure are in increasing need of support which, regardless of its form, requires considerable fiscal and budgetary commitment. Having said that, in the context of a debt which should already recognize only reductions and with a series of emerging crises or at the door, fiscal well-management remains an absolute priority. Efficient implementation of capital investments today guarantees not only sustainability in terms of economic growth but also creates a sound basis for revenue growth to finance future investments while maintaining the downward trend of a public debt. The challenge, no matter how easy it may seem on paper, remains difficult in practice, so the role of the Ministry of Finance and Economy is decisive both in terms of the guarantor in the efficiency of selection of sectoral projects and in expanding the taxpayer base and minimizing evasion.

 

Së dyti, duhet te bëjmë gjithçka mundemi për të rritur investimet private që plotësojnë zinxhirin e vlerës. Investimet publike ndihmojnë pa diskutim në krijimin e parakushteve, por kurrsesi nuk mund të zëvendësojnë ato private, sidomos sa i përket impaktit në qëndrueshmëri dhe gjithpërfshirje. Produktet e prodhuara në vend me synim eksportin, janë në rritje të dukshme por, përgjithësisht, nuk janë komplekse dhe janë të renditura poshtë në zinxhirin e vlerës ndaj dhe roli orientues apo incentivues në këtë aspekt përbën një nevojë dhe mundësi për rezultate të drejtpërdrejta në ekonomi. Nëse arrijmë të përshpejtojmë ritmin e rritjes së investimeve private të orientuara në sektorë që plotësojnë zinxhirin e vlerës, pavarësisht nëse janë investime të brendshme apo të huaja do të jemi të mirëpajisur për të synuar qëndrueshmërinë në terma afatmesëm. Gjithëpërfshirja do të ishte gjithashtu objektiv i radhës, por dhe rrjedhojë e natyrshme.

Së fundmi, mendoj s’është koha të qasemi pak ndryshe në buxhetim, duke filluar sigurisht nga muaji Mars 2022 ku dhe fillon përgatitja për projektbuxhetin afatmesëm 2023-2025, pasi politikbërja buxhetore apo fiskale duhet të ndërrojë kah duke nisur nga ministritë që mbulojnë sektorë zhvillimorë drejt ministrisë së Financave dhe jo anasjelltas.

Ka një arsye jo rastësore pse Ministria përgjegjëse për Financat është përgjegjëse dhe për zhvillimin ekonomik, ndaj nëse nuk trajtohen si dy përgjegjësi të ndara do të vazhdojmë rutinën e imponimit të tavaneve buxhetorë statikë pa pasur në konsideratë lidhjen jetësore midis politikave sektoriale dhe zhvillimit ekonomik. Sfidat dhe mundësitë janë të shumta por besoj se këto tre sfida apo mundësi specifike, të adresuara si duhet do të ktheheshin në një shtysë strategjike për maksimizimin në planin afatmesëm të potencialit të këtij buxheti që votohet sot nen për nen dhe në tërësi. Mirëmenaxhimi fiskal, rritja e investimeve private të orientuara drejt produkteve komplekse dhe ndryshimi i qasjes në politikbërje dhe buxhetim janë të dobishme pavarësisht rrethanave. Por, në rrethanat e vendit tonë, me mjetet e ofruara dhe nga Buxheti 2022, ato do të na lejonin të rritnim më tej optimizmin dhe pritshmëritë për ekonominë tonë.

 

MP and PS