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Politike

Poll data, PD gets SMI 11 seats in Vlora, Fier, Tirana, Durres, Elbasan and Shkodra, SP continues to remain dominant

Poll data, PD gets SMI 11 seats in Vlora, Fier, Tirana, Durres, Elbasan and

The Socialist Party is quoted as the first force in the main constituencies that can decide the next government. Another 8 days separate us from the elections of April 25 and according to the polls, the Socialist Party is expected to be the winner, while the Democratic Party has a significant increase, while the Socialist Movement for Integration is the most lost party in the middle. Televisions in the country have conducted several surveys and last week they focused on the 6 main counties. The company "MRB" has conducted surveys in Tirana, Durres, Elbasan and Fier, while the company IPSOS in the above regions, but also in Shkodra and Vlora. From the data of these polls it results that in 6 regions the SP gets 55 seats, the DP gets 45 seats, while the SMI gets only 2 seats. If we take the regions in turn, according to the polls of these two companies in Tirana, the Socialist Party is quoted in 18 mandates, as much as it currently has, while the Democratic Party has a significant increase, after being quoted in 16 terms. Compared to 2017 there is an increase of 5 seats. What it loses is the Socialist Movement for Integration. SMI decreases from 5 seats to 2 seats. If we look carefully, the DP gets 3 mandates of the SMI in the capital and two additional mandates that the district of Tirana has, since from 34 mandates it has gone to 36 mandates. As far as Durrës is concerned, we have a very strong competition. PD and SP are quoted in 7 mandates, while LSI comes out with zero mandates even though it has sent all its arsenal there. Another district is Elbasan, where the SP is quoted in 8 seats, while the DP in about 6 seats, while the SMI comes out with zero seats. Fier is the region where the SP is growing, as it is projected to go from 10 to 11 seats, while the DP remains at 5 seats, while the SMI loses 2 seats compared to 2017. Vlora is another stronghold where the left dominates. The president has landed himself in the coastal city and is fighting hard for the SMI to get a mandate, but according to opinion polls this party comes out with zero mandates. DP has significant increase as it goes to 4 terms and fights for the fifth. While the SP is quoted in 8 mandates, but can go down to 7. Shkodra will continue to remain right-wing as the SP is projected to decline. PD is quoted in 7 mandates, SP in 3 mandates while one mandate is taken by Tom Doshi. So the SMI in the 6 main regions of the country comes out with only 2 seats, while the other 11 seats seem to be taken by the DP. As for the other counties, it most likely comes out with zero mandates. but may go down and at 7. Shkodra will continue to remain right-wing as the SP is projected to decline. PD is quoted in 7 mandates, SP in 3 mandates while one mandate is taken by Tom Doshi. So the SMI in the 6 main regions of the country comes out with only 2 seats, while the other 11 seats seem to be taken by the DP. As for the other counties, it most likely comes out with zero mandates. but may go down and at 7. Shkodra will continue to remain right-wing as the SP is projected to decline. PD is quoted in 7 mandates, SP in 3 mandates while one mandate is taken by Tom Doshi. So the SMI in the 6 main regions of the country comes out with only 2 seats, while the other 11 seats seem to be taken by the DP. As for the other counties, it most likely comes out with zero mandates.

Separation of votes

In the January polls, the SMI was quoted at the level of 10.3 percent, which if we translate into national votes, compared to the participation in the 2017 elections, revolves around 166 thousand votes. In 2017 this party received 220 thousand votes and 14.3 percent of the vote. In the February poll, this party was quoted at 9.1 percent, which if we count by the number of votes with the participation in 2017 is quoted at 146 thousand votes. In the third poll, the SMI is quoted at 7.6 percent, which means about 120 thousand votes. While in the last poll the SMI fell to 5.2 percent or about 83 thousand votes. Compared to 2017, Monika Kryemadhi's party loses about 140 thousand votes and the vast majority of them go to the DP. Democrats are growing significantly according to the polls, the SP's wealth is somewhere around 8 points ahead. If we look at the percentages, It turns out that the SMI had the biggest loss in April. It is about 40 thousand voters who have left now. Meanwhile, it is seen in other periods that 20 thousand voters leave every month. So it seems that the April 25 battle of the SMI is with the DP and not with the SP. The reality shows that it is the DP that is taking all the SMI voters. The SP took it in 2017 and those left are Democrats who left in 2013 and are returning to the DP.

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