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Vladimir Putin ready to "blow up" Vu?i? if he implements the Franco-German plan, Russian intelligence groups "eyes and ears" to Serbia's decision, this is what Belgrade risks
Written by Alfrida SHANAJ 26 Janar 2023
The president of the European Movement of Serbia, Jelica Minic, analyzed the role of Russia in the Balkans. She thinks that it is in Russia's interest to provoke conflicts in the region and to achieve something like that she is making constant efforts. Any consolidation, mitigation or relations with Euro-Atlantic institutions are against Russian interests. If Serbia changes its position and accepts the Franco-German plan as a solution to the tensions with Kosovo, it will face, on the other hand, brutal Russian pressure and punishment. Since such a fact would be understood by Russia as a distancing of Serbia from Russia. While independent Russian analyst Natalija Ishchenko said that if Vucic accepts the Western plan, Russia will certainly change its policy towards Serbia. Natalija Ishchenko is convinced that in that case Russia will interfere in the internal affairs of Serbia and with the help of Russian citizens in Serbia will try to interfere in the internal politics of the country. If Russia succeeds in releasing the radical forces it has under its control, difficult times await Serbia and it will fall into instability that will go hand in hand with Moscow.
Russian interventions in Serbia
The issue of tensions between Serbia and Kosovo has also taken place in the Russian media. Regarding the issue, the Moscow Komsomol newspaper has emphasized that Serbia is going through the most difficult moments of its history, which we can say is caught between two fires, on one side is the pressure of the West and on the other side is Moscow. But Serbia, despite great pressure from the West, does not impose sanctions on Russia and continues to maintain bilateral relations with Russia. The Russian analyst Polina Sokolova also stated for the same newspaper that the majority of the population in Serbia is pro-Russian and only a small part of it is on the side of the West and against Russia. According to her, Vucic is aware of this fact and will take this fact into account even when he has to make a decision regarding the acceptance of the German-French plan for Kosovo. She also believes that Vu?i?'s threat to resign is not realistic, at least for the moment, and if he has to make such a decision, he will definitely make it after making a decision about Kosovo. In this way, his successor, whoever he may be, will follow his political line.
The Russians want Vucic to be more assertive
However, the Russians demand that Vucic be more firm and clear and not constantly stuck in the dilemma between Russia and the West. The Balkanist portal points out that Vucic is faced with a dilemma, either the European perspective or fraternization with Russia, so Vucic should think carefully before making a firm decision. Pro-regime Balkanologist Natalija Guskova is convinced that Vu?i? is not yet ready to accept the plan offered by the West. However, with this she sends more of a message to Vu?i?, as she herself is sure that he will not give up. On the other hand, Sokolova is no longer so sure about Vucic's loyalty, because she says that he is desperately resisting the imposition of sanctions against Russia, but the question is how long he will be able to maintain this resistance. She believes that Vucic is aware of the situation, but he also thinks that recently there has been a reluctance on his part because he himself knows that the support of the population leans towards an alliance with Russia. He understands that by implementing the Franco-German plan, he would have to issue a statement regarding the Kosovo issue, and this would have quite a few consequences. Jelica Mini? points out that Vucic is in a situation where it is increasingly difficult to balance the pressure from the West and from Russia. Jelica Mini? is particularly frightened by Russian ultra-right groups, such as Wagner or as they are otherwise called the Night Wolves, which operate openly and undisguised in Serbia. Moscow has emphasized that it will stay close to Serbia only if it continues to be its fraternal ally. Russia can complicate the situation for Vucic, because they have networked Serbia with their intelligence "forces",