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Rajoni

The big problems of Vucic's party, analysis: What is expected to happen in Belgrade! Will there be new elections?

The big problems of Vucic's party, analysis: What is expected to happen in

The constitutive session of the Belgrade Assembly was postponed to March 1 due to the lack of quorum. The chairman of the Provisional Authority of the municipality of Belgrade, Aleksandar Shapic, on the eve of the constitutive session of the city's parliament, said that if in ten days no agreement is reached for the majority with the "MI-Glas iz naroda" list, elections will be held in Belgrade. new.

If there is no majority by this date, a new period of 45 to 60 days begins for holding new elections. The holder of the "MI-Glas iz naroda" list, Branimir Nestorovic, said that they do not want to be part of the coalition and that the best solution is to announce new elections in Belgrade.

The Serbian opposition considers this its great victory. As pointed out in the first reactions, the cancellation of the session is clear evidence that those elections were not legitimate. The elections must be repeated under democratic conditions, the opposition leaders declare, and say that the revision of the list of voters with the participation of observers is the absolute minimum condition for new elections.

On the other hand, the prime minister in the technical mandate, Ana Brnabi?, claims that this is not a victory for the opposition and that the government has not stolen any votes.

Problems with the majority in Belgrade

Zoran Gavrilovi? from the Bureau of Social Research (BIRODI) comments to DW that it is a matter of buying time on the part of the authorities.

"It is clear that the formation of the majority in a process that was not legal would be unstable. It was simply proven that the elections were full of irregularities and that there were serious violations of the law. Likewise, Nestorovic said that their deputies are being offered six-figure sums in euros to join the coalition. The European Parliament has put a stamp on everything and I think that Aleksandar Vucic has decided to give up for the moment because of the internal and external reaction", believes our interlocutor.

Even Zoran Stojiljkovic, professor of the Faculty of Political Sciences, sees the postponement of the session as buying time. "I think that this was done so that until March 1 the reactions of the local opinion and the European Union can be seen. "Maybe there will be an attempt to balance everything with the readiness to go to the elections in Belgrade again," Stojiljkovic told DW.

Repeat under the same conditions?

The question is what the government expects to happen in the next ten days. And why were new elections not held immediately? Professor Stojiljkovic believes that "this would be a gesture that would show weakness".

"The current government is trying to get out of any trouble by turning the situation around and showing some of its cooperation. What we seem to be forgetting at the moment is that she will try to go to those repeated elections under largely unchanged conditions and thus try to win them", warns Zoran Stojiljkovic.

Unsuccessful bluff of the authorities

In recent days, officials of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), as well as the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), have claimed that they have the majority to form a government in the Serbian capital. They stated that MPs from various parliamentary groups are contacting them and offering support to SNS and SPS in a secret ballot. Now it is difficult to determine whether it was a bluff or whether calculations and other agreements were hidden behind these statements.

Zoran Gavrilovic believes that "in the coming days, Vucic may try to negotiate avoiding the international investigation, in exchange for repeating the elections in Belgrade". He will probably try to tone down the ODIHR report somewhat. I think we will witness some kind of political game", emphasizes Gavrilovic.

Contested legitimacy of elections

For Zoran Gavrilovic, the insistence of the authorities that they want the full legitimacy of the Belgrade government is "an empty story, because the citizens of Belgrade chose the list led by the President of Serbia. Vucic has violated the Constitution, the Law on the President of the Republic and the Statute of the SNS, because he is only a member of the party and as president he did not have the right to appear on the electoral lists. We simply cannot talk about legitimacy", emphasizes Gavrilovic.

We will know the position of the opposition for the next steps soon, says Zoran Stojiljkovic. And we will see "if they will agree on quick elections under similar conditions, which is a kind of risk, or if they will insist on better conditions", notes Professor Stojiljkovic./DW